ARLP007 Propagation DE KT7H
QST DE W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 7  ARLP007
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  February 19, 1993
To All Radio Amateurs

Solar flux declined a bit since last week's high of 188, but there
was flare activity to keep conditions dicey.  The quietest day was
February 15, when the A index was only one, but two days later
flares drove the same index to 28.

Flux values should continue to slide, until they reach levels near
110 around February 23 through 25.  Then the next rise should drive
it to 175 around March 7.  There could be more flares and
geomagnetic upsets February 27 and March 7.

For the ARRL CW DX Contest this weekend look for solar flux around
115 or 120 and unsettled geomagnetic conditions.

The projection for this weekend is from Dallas, Texas to the former
Yugoslavia.  80 meters should be best from 2330 to 0700 UTC, and 40
meters from 2200 to 0830 UTC.  30 meters should be best from 2030 to
0500 UTC, and 20 meters from 1330 to 1930 UTC, with a brief opening
around 2200 UTC.  17 meters should be best from 1400 to 1900 UTC,
15 meters from 1500 to 1800 UTC, and 12 meters from 1600 to
1700 UTC.  10 meters has a chance of an opening around 1630 UTC.

Sunspot Numbers from February 11 to 17 were 131, 131, 121, 120, 100,
123 and 86, with a mean of 116.  10.7 cm flux was 173.2, 148.6, 135,
141, 134.8, 133.7 and 124.3, with a mean of 141.5.
/EX